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Confidence Comes from Experience: Experiential Confidence Estimation from Reasoning to Agents

The paper introduces XConf, a method for estimating confidence in language models by leveraging the model's accumulated experience. XConf uses past episodes, including tasks, reflections, confidence levels, outcomes, and lessons learned, to inform current confidence estimates through a recall and reflect process. It outperforms existing methods in discrimination and calibration with lower computational cost.

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PublishedSeptember 15, 2026Caiqi Zhang, Xiaochen Zhu, Chengzu Li
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WHY IT MAY MATTER

XConf improves confidence estimation by using historical data, leading to better performance and lower costs compared to existing methods.

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