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Do Verifiable Metrics Overestimate RSI?

METR released an assessment of AI R&D acceleration at Anthropic, estimating that model improvements are occurring at twice the rate of a previous period. However, there is a risk that this acceleration may be due to overfitting to verifiable tasks, which could lead to a slowdown.

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PublishedNovember 11, 2026Alec Harris
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WHY IT MAY MATTER

The study highlights the importance of validating metrics to avoid overestimating AI progress rates.

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