P(Anyone Builds It & Everyone Dies) = 0.62?

TL;DR: ArgMap is a tool I created to make arguments explorable and computable, with every step directly linkable. Its first map is of If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: I mapped the logical structure of the book's argument with LLM help. LLM readers derive confidence numbers from the authors' words through a rubric that was fixed in advance. The computation tests how well the authors' stated confidence fits their argument as I mapped it, rather than reflecting my personal view of the book. Out of 67 claims that the book both rates and argues for, 66 land within 10 points of the authors' range; the exception is the claim that everyone dies, at 0.62 against the authors' range 0.75 to 0.95. The policy conclusion for a global shutdown is at 0.93. You can adjust any probability on the map and see the conclusions change and tensions light up. I'd like you to find a step you disagree with or a toy example where the computation is wrong. ---------------------------------------- > Do I contradict myself? > > Very well then I contradict myself, > > (I am large, I contain multitudes.) > > Walt Whitman, "Song of Myself" In the art of Kintsugi the broken pieces that no longer quite fit together are joined back into a whole, and the breakage and repair in gold become part of the piece. Photo: "Hand Pinted Kintsugi Pottery Bowl" by Ruthann Hurwitz, CC BY-SA 4.0. Whose number, and what "everyone" means In If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies (henceforth IABIED), the word "everyone" is meant literally: everyone, everywhere on Earth, will die, killed by an artificial superintelligence (ASI) soon after one is built. The authors add: "We do not mean that as hyperbole." Many people have stated a probability for that outcome, but few explain how they arrived at it. By contrast, IABIED lays out the argument in great detail, and confidence is communicated as natural language or even omitted. With the numbers read from the authors' natural language through the fixed rubr