Robin Hanson did not invent the concept of a martingale process, but he popularized the idea that probability assignments should form a martingale. This concept is linked to the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, which states that short-term price movements cannot be predicted. The idea was developed earlier, but Hanson contributed to its visibility.
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The idea that Bayesians should not predictably update their probabilities became popularized by Robin Hanson, even though its foundations were developed earlier.
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