State of the Field: AI for Epistemics and Coordination

1. Executive Summary 1.1 What this field is and why it matters AI is already substantially changing how people and institutions work out what to believe, decide what to do, and coordinate on actions to take. As AI systems become increasingly capable, they will be integrated more and more in both major and day-to-day decisions. The upside of involving AI systems in these processes could be enormous. AI tools for epistemics and coordination could make it easier to understand complex situations, help people act on shared interests, and generally improve societal legibility and efficiency. However, there are also numerous risks[1]: AI could help concentrate decision-making power (e.g. via persuasion at scale), increase problematic forms of dependence on AI systems, and help facilitate certain dangerous and subversive forms of manipulation. This report looks at an emerging cluster of work aimed at steering these developments in a positive direction. Given that the field’s boundaries are not clearly defined, we use “AI for Epistemics and Coordination” as an umbrella term to refer to projects aiming to use AI to help people form better beliefs, make wiser decisions, and coordinate more effectively.[2] We believe the field is underdeveloped relative to its importance. Whether transformative AI arrives soon or much later, the quality of the decisions made during the transition will matter significantly. There are large commercial and institutional incentives to automate/augment “better decision-making”. It is very unclear whether the tools and technologies that matter most will be built well, early enough to shape norms, and made available as a public good. We see two main reasons not to leave the development of these tools up to existing incentives: * Early products and standards may shape what users expect from AI, what companies compete on and how AI agents coordinate. This may create a limited window in which evaluations, norms and infrastructure can have persist