norgitov/ trends
Technology · people · ideas
Back to discovery/Daily Papers2 hours ago

Can an Agent Learn to Predict Its Own Failure? Outcome-Grounded Confidence Calibration in LLM Agents

The paper proposes a method to calibrate agent confidence based on the final outcome of multi-step tasks. Experiments showed an increase in AUROC from near-chance levels to 0.68-0.85, and a 4.3x increase in success rate for the most confident steps.

Open original
SIGNAL FROM THE SOURCE
1
source votes
Tracking sinceOctober 14, 20261 source votes
Momentum—More observations needed
Discussion—Read comments ↗
PublishedOctober 13, 2026Ashutosh Hathidara
BEHIND THE NUMBERS

How interest changes

History starts here

The chart will appear after repeat observations. The current metric comes from the source.

1 source votes

Real observations only. History before source connection is not reconstructed.

WHY IT MAY MATTER

The method allows the agent to better assess its confidence based on the final outcome, which can improve decision-making effectiveness in complex tasks.

A useful discovery?
KEEP EXPLORING

Connected ideas

Explore topic